Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles and could redeploy launchers retrieved from underground storage facilities, according to US officials familiar with the intelligence assessments, the Wall Street Journal reported.
The findings come as the United States negotiates with Iran in Pakistan in an effort to cement a fragile ceasefire. Some US officials fear Tehran may use the pause in fighting to rebuild parts of its missile capability.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this week that Iran’s missile program was “functionally destroyed”, with launchers and missiles “depleted and decimated and almost completely ineffective”.
Missile Losses but Arsenal Remains Large
However, intelligence assessments cited by the newspaper suggest Iran may be rebuilding some of its forces. While more than half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, damaged or trapped underground, many could be repaired or recovered.
Although Iran’s missile arsenal has been reduced roughly by half, the country still retains thousands of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, US and Israeli officials said.
“The Iranians have shown a remarkable ability to innovate and reconstitute their forces quickly,” said Kenneth Pollack of the Middle East Institute.
Israeli officials estimate about two-thirds of Iran’s launchers were disabled during the war, but some may be recovered from underground facilities, leaving Iran with more than 1,000 of the roughly 2,500 medium-range missiles it possessed before the conflict.
While Israel has not completely halted missile launches, officials said the number has fallen to about 10–15 per day, down from dozens at the start of the conflict. They added that Iran is currently unable to produce new missiles and that the pace of reconstruction will depend on assistance from Russia or China.
A US Central Command official declined to comment, referring to statements by senior US military leaders on the scale of operations.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US military had met all its objectives. “This significant military achievement has allowed Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner to negotiate with maximum force to definitively end the threats against American troops and our homeland,” she said.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are the US envoys who, along with JD Vance, are attending Saturday’s talks with Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Iran Retains Strategic Leverage
Analysts warn Iran could still influence security in the Gulf despite its losses. “It has the advantage that every day it doesn’t lose, it actually wins – and every day we don’t win, we lose,” said Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Iran, which already had a weak air force before the war, has long relied on its missile arsenal as a tool for power projection and deterrence, the Wall Street Journal noted.
(wsj, luc)