Flights for short breaks or longer holidays costing very little may be a thing of the past. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have hit one of the key arteries of global mobility, the aviation fuel market.
Aviation fuel prices in north-western Europe have risen more sharply than any other major fuel benchmark.
While global attention remains focused on Brent crude, which is rising but still below record highs, the most dramatic developments are unfolding in the aviation fuel market. Prices have surged past $1,700 per tonne, compared with roughly $500 to $1,000 per tonne between 2023 and 2026.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows that the global average price has climbed to $209 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 132%. In Asia, the situation is even more difficult, with carriers facing increases of up to 163% year on year.
The shock follows the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal conditions, around one-fifth of the world’s oil and up to half of Europe’s aviation fuel imports pass through the strait.
According to industry sources, the European market remains relatively well supplied in April, supported by existing inventories and pre-arranged deliveries. This offers temporary relief, but uncertainty remains. The full impact is likely to become clearer in May and June.
Although Donald Trump has announced a fragile two-week ceasefire, easing immediate market concerns, the underlying problem remains unresolved. Iran continues to signal that it may impose tolls on transit through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping supply risks elevated.
The consequences extend beyond commodity markets and into household budgets. There is a growing risk that this year's holidays will become significantly more expensive and logistically challenging due to higher fuel costs and reduced flight availability. Scandinavian airline SAS has said it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April. Ryanair has not announced large-scale cancellations but expects ticket prices to rise as fuel costs increase.
Airlines are under pressure. Fuel can account for up to 40% of operating costs. While major carriers use hedging strategies, the scale of the current price increase leaves limited scope to absorb the shock without passing costs on to passengers.
Ryanair has already indicated that fares will rise after Easter, and IATA warns that average ticket prices could increase by more than 9%. Czech charter airline Smartwings has introduced fuel surcharges in response.
For travellers, the implication is clear: short, direct flights are likely to be the more reliable option. These routes carry lower operational and supply risks than long-haul or complex connecting journeys.
Trump’s temporary truce with Iran has provided some relief to markets and slightly reduced oil prices. However, as long as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persist, volatility is unlikely to ease.
For tourists, this points to a broader shift. The era of abundant, cheap air travel may be coming to an end. Airline tickets are becoming a more premium product, and this year’s holiday may prove more costly than many anticipated only a few months ago.
The text, which is abridged, was originally published on lukaskovanda.cz.